How it works
Pick a stock or any Solana token, a side, a target and a date, and optional turns that prediction into a token on pump.fun or StonkFun, which your wallet signs and pays for in one Solana transaction.
The prediction
You can predict on a listed stock or on a Solana token. Long means it will be above your target on the date; Short means below. For a stock the target is its share price, and each prediction is named after a listed stock option:
| You choose | Option term |
|---|---|
| Long | Call |
| Short | Put |
| Target | Strike |
| By | Expiry: 16:00 New York on a listed Friday |
Weekly markets list the next four Fridays plus the monthlies; monthly markets list the next three third-Fridays.
For a token the target is its market cap, on the same Friday dates. Choose from the top Solana tokens, or paste any token's contract address. Custom tokens need at least $500K market cap and $50K of locked liquidity; tokens not launched on pump.fun need $250K locked and their mint and freeze authority revoked.
Launching
The token is named for you (for example NVDA $225 LONG OCT 30, ticker NVDA225L, or WIF $490M MC LONG OCT 02) and draws its artwork. You can change any of it before you launch.
It's paired with SOL by default, like any pump.fun coin. You can pair it with the stock's own token instead (NVDA with NVDAX), or with another token pump.fun pairs with: a top token, or a custom one that passes the same checks.
| Launch on | How it works |
|---|---|
| pump.fun | The default. A pump.fun coin created directly with the pump.fun program, paired with SOL or the token you pick |
| StonkFun | Stock predictions: a Raydium LaunchLab pool paired with the stock's token. StonkFun lists it about a minute after it confirms |
| Step | What happens |
|---|---|
| Upload | Artwork and metadata go to IPFS |
| Create | optional builds the create transaction for your wallet, directly against pump.fun or Raydium LaunchLab, and checks it before anything is signed |
| Approve | Your wallet signs and pays: the optional initial buy (in the token's pair), priority fee and network fees |
| Listing | A 0 SOL transfer to optional's marker address is included, which is how Explore finds every launch on-chain |
| Confirm | Success is shown only after Solana confirms the transaction |
Rewards
Holders of a token launched on optional are rewarded in its pair: SOL, or the token it's paired with. It isn't an airdrop to whoever holds at the end. Rewards are weighted by how long each wallet holds the token, from launch until the prediction's date (4:00 pm New York on its Friday), so holding longer earns a bigger share.
What the token is
A pump.fun or StonkFun token themed on your prediction. It is not an option and isn't the token you predicted on: it isn't backed by either, isn't redeemable, doesn't track their value and pays nothing on the date. Its price is set by people trading it on its launchpad.
Model values
Market pages can show what the option behind a prediction would be worth (under Advanced). These are Black–Scholes estimates with zero rates, from the current price and a reference volatility per stock with a downside skew. They are not quotes, and optional doesn't sell options.
- Value
- 6.03
- Delta
- 0.481
- Gamma
- 0.0235
- Theta/day
- -$0.24
- Vega/pt
- $0.15
- Breakeven
- 196.03
| Greek | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Delta | Exposure: a 0.48 delta moves about $0.48 per $1 in the stock |
| Gamma | How fast delta changes as the stock moves |
| Theta | Value lost per day if nothing else changes |
| Vega | Value change per 1-point move in volatility |
What's live
| Feature | Status |
|---|---|
| Wallets | Phantom, Solflare and other Wallet Standard wallets |
| Stock prices and charts | Twelve Data, refreshed about every 20 minutes while the market is open |
| Launching on pump.fun | Live on Solana mainnet, paired with SOL or a token you pick |
| Token predictions | Top Solana tokens, or any token with $500K+ market cap and enough locked liquidity, judged on market cap |
| My predictions | The launches made from your connected wallet, read from Solana |
| Launching on StonkFun | Live on Solana mainnet, paired with the tokenized stock |
| Model values | Estimates, not quotes |
| Trading options | Not offered |
optional never holds your funds or keys. The only transaction it asks you to sign is the create transaction for your token. Launch a prediction.